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17 September 2025,07:24
Daily Market Analysis
17 September 2025, 07:24
*Geopolitical risk premium persists as Ukraine’s drone strikes disrupt Russian refining and exports, tightening near-term supply.
*Structural oversupply looms with rising OPEC+ and non-OPEC output, plus weak demand signals from China and Japan.
*Fed’s expected rate cut could weaken USD and support demand, but growth fears may cap rallies and keep oil range-bound.
Crude oil remains trapped in a tug-of-war between short-term geopolitical risks and longer-term structural concerns. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have sidelined refining capacity and threatened export flows, adding a geopolitical premium that has kept Brent supported near recent highs. Russia’s pipeline operator, Transneft, has even warned producers of potential curbs, highlighting the fragility of global supply at a time when markets remain hypersensitive to geopolitical shocks.
Still, upside momentum is constrained by persistent demand worries and oversupply risks. Analysts caution that OPEC+ output increases and resilient non-OPEC supply could tip the market into a surplus later this year, with Macquarie projecting up to 3 million barrels per day of excess supply in Q4 2025. Demand-side weakness adds further caution: Japan’s exports have contracted for four consecutive months, and Chinese refiners have accumulated record stockpiles, signaling tepid consumption trends.
The macro backdrop also plays a role, with investors awaiting the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. An expected rate cut could soften the U.S. dollar and support energy demand, but traders remain wary of a “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact” dynamic if broader growth concerns prevail. In the near term, crude prices appear range-bound—supported by supply disruptions but capped by fears of structural oversupply and slowing global growth.
Technical Analysis
USOIL is rebounding after defending the $62.00 floor, with price climbing back above $64.00 and testing the $64.90 resistance band. The recovery follows a prolonged downtrend and subsequent consolidation, signaling that buyers are regaining short-term control. A decisive break above $64.90 would strengthen bullish momentum, opening the way toward $66.65 and $68.55, while failure to clear resistance risks another pullback toward $63.15 and $61.55.
Momentum indicators support the recovery bias. RSI is at 63, showing a return to bullish territory after weeks of sub-50 readings, while MACD has crossed above the signal line, with both lines turning higher into positive territory, reflecting improving upward momentum.
Overall, oil is attempting to establish a base above $63.00. Bulls need to clear $64.90 for further upside confirmation, while bears will look for rejection at resistance to reassert pressure toward $63.15.
Resistance levels: 64.90, 66.65
Support levels: 63.15, 61.55
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