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EN
29 October 2025,05:09
Daily Market Analysis New
29 October 2025, 05:09
Key Takeaways:
*BoJ policy meeting in focus — Markets expect no rate change, but new PM Takaichi’s dovish stance could influence future direction.
*Yen gains as safe-haven demand rises amid weakening U.S. dollar and global risk-off sentiment
*Speculation of potential currency intervention by Japanese authorities adds support to the yen.
Market Summary:
WThe Japanese yen strengthened in recent sessions as diminishing appetite for the U.S. dollar prompted investors to rotate into safe-haven assets. Heightened uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown, persistent U.S.–China trade tensions, and the possibility of Japanese currency intervention have all underpinned yen demand.
At the same time, focus has shifted toward the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting, which will likely set the tone for the yen’s medium-term outlook. Markets expect the BoJ to maintain its benchmark rate at 0.50%, though attention is centered on the potential policy direction under Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi. Known for her dovish and pro-stimulus policy bias, investors are watching closely to see whether fiscal cooperation between the government and central bank could lead to a more accommodative stance.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks after the meeting will be key for assessing how policymakers balance monetary flexibility with inflation management. Any hint of sustained stimulus could weigh on the yen’s longer-term trajectory, while stronger rhetoric against currency volatility might lend it short-term support.
Meanwhile, broader market sentiment remains cautious as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare to meet later this week. The talks—expected to address ongoing trade frictions—may influence global risk appetite and, by extension, demand for safe-haven currencies like the yen.
In the near term, the yen’s movement is likely to be driven by a combination of domestic policy signals and external macro catalysts. Investors are advised to monitor both the BoJ’s policy tone and U.S.–China trade outcomes for clues on whether recent yen strength can be sustained.
Technical Analysis
USD/JPY, H4:
USD/JPY continues to trade lower after retracing from the 153.10 resistance level, currently hovering near the red MA support line. A confirmed break below this area would reinforce bearish momentum, potentially driving the pair toward the next support at 151.30.
The MACD indicates strengthening bearish signals, while the RSI at 45 remains below the midline, reflecting sustained downside bias and potential for a double-top formation. However, should bearish momentum fade, a rebound toward the yellow MA line could lift prices back toward resistance at 153.10 and 154.65.
Resistance Levels: 153.10, 154.65
Support Levels: 151.30, 149.70
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