25 June 2025,03:37
Daily Market Analysis
25 June 2025, 03:37
Key Takeaways:
*Gold retreats as Israel-Iran ceasefire triggers risk-on sentiment.
*Safe-haven demand weakens, but downside limited by U.S. debt concerns and dollar weakness.
*Investors eye Thursday’s U.S. Core PCE report, a key Fed inflation gauge.
Market Summary:
Gold prices fell sharply in early trading as traders digested multiple reports confirming a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The news dampened safe-haven demand, triggering broad-based selling in the gold market. The ceasefire, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, has improved risk sentiment globally, prompting capital flows back into higher-risk assets and away from traditional hedges.
Despite the short-term drop, the outlook for gold remains complex. The market continues to weigh unresolved macroeconomic concerns—particularly surrounding the U.S. government’s ballooning debt and a weakening U.S. dollar. Should dollar weakness persist, it could bolster gold’s appeal in the medium to long term.
Moreover, the ceasefire has yet to receive an official response from Tehran. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had previously stated he would not accept an “imposed peace,” adding a layer of geopolitical uncertainty that could reignite safe-haven flows.
Investors will also closely monitor this week’s release of the U.S. Core PCE Price Index. A weaker-than-expected inflation print may increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, thereby reducing real yields and potentially lifting gold again.
While the near-term direction for gold is influenced by easing geopolitical risks, the broader trend hinges on U.S. macroeconomic data, fiscal stability, and the Fed’s rate trajectory.
Gold prices are trading higher in short-term recovery mode, following a breakout above the previous resistance level of 3320.00. MACD shows increasing bullish momentum with a widening histogram, while RSI is currently at 52—hovering just above the neutral line. If bullish momentum persists, the next key test lies at the resistance level of 3345.00, followed by 3370.00.
Failure to maintain above 3320.00, however, could see a pullback toward support at 3300.00. Given the recent shift in risk sentiment, price movements may remain choppy until new geopolitical or macro catalysts emerge.
Resistance levels: 3345.00, 3370.00
Support levels: 3320.00, 3300.00
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