Market Insights > Daily Market Analysis

25 July 2025,05:27

Daily Market Analysis

Euro Gains on ECB Optimism, But Trade Uncertainty Looms

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25 July 2025, 05:27

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Key Takeaways:

*Markets interpreted Lagarde’s remarks as signaling a potential end to rate reductions, bolstering the euro’s appeal.

*Despite the currency’s initial strength, gains were limited by lingering uncertainty over U.S.-EU trade talks.

Market Summary:

The euro edged higher against major currencies after the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates at 2%, marking a pause in its easing cycle following eight consecutive cuts. The decision, widely expected by markets, was accompanied by a cautiously optimistic tone from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who noted stabilizing growth and inflation trends in the eurozone. This reinforced expectations that the central bank may be done with rate reductions for now, providing the single currency with a modest lift.

Trade Tensions Loom Over Euro’s Rally
However, the euro’s upside remains constrained as U.S.-EU trade negotiations hang in the balance. With the August 1 tariff deadline fast approaching, Brussels continues pushing for a reduction in U.S. import duties to 15%, down from the initially threatened 30%. Yet, the White House has downplayed speculation of an imminent agreement, keeping markets on edge. The lack of a clear resolution threatens to reintroduce volatility, potentially dampening the euro’s recent strength.

Diverging Central Bank Policies in Focus
The ECB’s steady stance contrasts with growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, which could further influence the euro-dollar exchange rate. If the Fed begins easing while the ECB holds firm, the policy divergence may offer additional support to the euro—provided trade risks remain contained. For now, traders remain cautious, awaiting concrete developments on both the trade and monetary policy fronts before extending the currency’s rally.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD, H4:

The EUR/USD pair extended its bullish breakout, surging over 1% after decisively breaching its prior downtrend channel. However, momentum has since cooled, with the pair now consolidating within a narrow range. A breakout above this consolidation zone could reinforce the bullish outlook, while a downside breach may signal a potential trend reversal.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the midline but is moderating below the overbought threshold, hinting at a slowdown in bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD is losing upward traction and appears poised for a bearish crossover above the zero line — a possible early signal of a momentum shift.

Resistance Levels: 1.1870, 1.2000

Support Levels: 1.1625, 1.1470

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This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments.

This material has been prepared without considering any individual investment objectives, financial situations. Any references to past performance of a financial instrument, index, or investment product are not indicative of future results.

PU Prime makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this content and accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided. Trading involves risk, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

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