Market Insights > Daily Market Analysis

14 August 2025,05:55

Daily Market Analysis

Dollar Slumps as Soft Data Fuels Fed Rate-Cut Bets

Tags:

14 August 2025, 05:55

Share on:

Share on:

Table of Contents show

Key Takeaways:

*USD index drops below 98.00 after weak NFP, softer CPI, and Trump’s dismissal of the BLS chief fuel rate-cut bets.

*U.S. Treasury yields tumble over 1% across maturities, signaling a dovish shift in Fed expectations.

*Dow gains 460+ points as lower yields lift market sentiment ahead of Friday’s retail sales data.

Market Summary:

The U.S. dollar came under renewed selling pressure this week, extending losses of more than 2.5% from its two-month high following last Friday’s weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report. The dollar index slipped below the 98.00 mark after Tuesday’s softer U.S. CPI reading compounded bearish sentiment.

The NFP miss was further overshadowed by President Trump’s abrupt dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, a political shock that accelerated the greenback’s decline. Tuesday’s CPI print, coming in weaker than the prior month, reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may deliver a rate cut as early as September.

U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply in the latest session, with both short- and long-dated maturities down more than 1%, reflecting a dovish shift in rate expectations. Wall Street, however, benefited from the easing yield environment, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing over 460 points, or 1%, to lead the major indices higher.

Markets now turn their attention to Friday’s U.S. retail sales data, which could provide further cues for the Fed’s policy path. A weaker reading would likely deepen dollar losses while extending the equity rally.

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar, H4

The U.S. dollar index has accelerated its decline, decisively breaking below the critical 98.10 support level that had previously underpinned its uptrend. This technical breakdown has effectively erased the index’s previous gains, confirming a shift in market control to bearish participants.

The deteriorating technical picture is reinforced by momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index, after struggling to maintain position above its neutral 50 level, has resumed its downward trajectory toward oversold territory. This failure to sustain momentum suggests weakening buying interest. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains entrenched below the zero line, having failed in its recent attempt to cross into positive territory—a configuration that typically signals persistent selling pressure.

Resistance level: 98.45, 99.25

Support level: 97.20, 96.70

NASDAQ, H4

The technology-focused index has reasserted its dominant uptrend, shaking off a brief dip below its ascending channel to establish a series of higher lows and fresh all-time highs. This robust recovery underscores the index’s underlying strength and reaffirms its bullish trajectory as market leadership remains firmly in the hands of growth-oriented technology stocks.

Technical indicators continue to support the case for further upside. The Relative Strength Index approaches overbought territory, reflecting sustained buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence maintains its upward trajectory above the zero line—a configuration that typically confirms healthy bullish momentum. The index’s ability to rebound from channel support and establish new highs suggests the recent consolidation may have served to refresh the uptrend rather than mark a reversal point.

Resistance level: 24,080.00, 24,320.00

Support level:23,650.00, 23,270.00

Step into the world of trading with confidence today. Open a free PU Prime live CFD trading account now to experience real-time market action, or refine your strategies risk-free with our demo account.

Disclaimer

This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments.

This material has been prepared without considering any individual investment objectives, financial situations. Any references to past performance of a financial instrument, index, or investment product are not indicative of future results.

PU Prime makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this content and accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided. Trading involves risk, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Start trading with an edge today

Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.

Start trading with deposits as low as $50 on our standard accounts.
Get access to 24/7 support.
Access hundreds of instruments, free educational tools, and some of the best promotions around.

Join Now

Latest Posts

Markets Brace for Trump–Putin Talks as Geopolitical Tensions Mount

Bitcoin Breaks Record, Testing Key Fibonacci Levels as Institutional Inflows Surge

Fast And Easy Account Opening

Create account

1

Register

Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
2

Fund

Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
3

Start Trading

Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.