Chart the Market (16/06/2025)

BTC, H4: 

Bitcoin remains range bound as bulls struggle to reclaim momentum; volatility subdued despite macro uncertainties. Bitcoin continues to consolidate below the 100-day moving average, with price action trapped between the $105,450 support zone and the $106,775 resistance. Despite recent attempts to rebound, BTC has failed to establish a sustained push above the $106,000 handle, reflecting cautious sentiment amid subdued volatility. This sideways movement follows a volatile downswing earlier in June, during which Bitcoin briefly pierced key support but managed to recover, stabilizing above the $105,000 level.

Momentum indicators paint a mixed technical picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers near the neutral 50 mark, lacking strong directional conviction and highlighting indecision among market participants. Meanwhile, the MACD line remains marginally below the signal line but is flattening and edging closer, suggesting that downside momentum may be fading — though confirmation of a bullish crossover remains absent but the histogram remains shallow, indicating weak follow-through. Price remains marginally above the shorter-term moving average, though the broader trend bias appears neutral to bearish below $106,775.

Fundamental Overview: Supportive Flows but External Risks Persist

Institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin remains broadly constructive, supported by six consecutive weeks of net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs totaling $1.37 billion. Corporate interest also appears steady, with MicroStrategy signaling plans for further accumulation. Despite elevated mining difficulty and reduced post-halving rewards weighing on profitability, some listed miners continue to expand operations and hold BTC on their balance sheets — indicating long-term confidence in the asset. However, these positives are tempered by broader macro risks, particularly rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and concerns over energy security in the Strait of Hormuz, which could dampen overall risk appetite across financial markets.

Conclusion: Range Holds, Eyes on Breakout Triggers

Looking ahead, BTC/USD faces a structural test. A sustained break above $106,775 would be required to revive bullish sentiment and open the path toward the $110,310 resistance. Conversely, a decisive drop below $105,000—and more critically beneath the $101,345 support—would reinforce the bearish case, exposing the market to a deeper retracement. Until a breakout from this consolidation range occurs, Bitcoin is likely to remain vulnerable to macro-driven swings and short-term speculative flows.

Resistance Levels: 106,775, 111,310

Support Levels: 105,450 , 101,345

GBPUSD,  H4

GBP/USD continues to oscillate within a narrow range, hovering just below the 1.3550 resistance after multiple failed attempts to establish a clean breakout. Price action remains supported near the 100-day moving average at 1.3515, but repeated rejections from higher levels reflect increasing hesitation among buyers. This sideways behavior follows a broader uptrend recovery from the May lows, though recent candles suggest stalling bullish momentum.

Momentum indicators offer a mixed technical picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the neutral 50 line and currently prints near 48, signaling a softening bias and fading bullish drive. Meanwhile, the MACD line remains marginally below the signal line, though both are flat and tightly compressed—highlighting indecisiveness and a lack of directional conviction.

From a structural standpoint, GBP/USD is at a technical crossroads. A sustained move above 1.3565 could re-invigorate bullish sentiment and pave the way toward the recent high at 1.3610. On the downside, a clean break below 1.3515 would expose the pair to deeper pullbacks, with initial support at 1.3450. With the U.K. CPI and U.S. retail sales on tap, macro catalysts may determine whether this consolidation resolves into renewed trend continuation or deeper corrective weakness.

Resistance Levels: 1.3565, 1.3610

Support Levels: 1.3515, 1.3450