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AUD Rebounds, But Dovish Risks Still Dominate

Key Takeaways:*The RBA’s surprise decision to hold at 3.85% triggered a short-term AUD rebound, but markets remain firmly positioned for an August cut, with an 85% probability priced and terminal rates seen at 3.0%. *Trump’s 50% copper tariff targets a key Australian export, deepening AUD’s vulnerability to global trade fragmentation. External demand risks now capContinue Reading
Yen Under Pressure as Policy and Trade Risks Mount

Key Takeaways:*With swaps now pricing just 10bps of tightening, Japan’s monetary inertia continues to weigh heavily on the yen. *Washington’s proposed 25% tariffs on Japanese goods erode the yen’s safe-haven appeal. *Despite a strong current account and cheap yen, structural drags—subdued wage growth and fragile domestic demand—undermine the JPY. Market Summary: In a televised cabinetContinue Reading
Copper Soars to Record High as Trump Proposes 50% Tariff on Imports

Key Takeaways:*President Trump proposed an additional 50% tariff on imported copper to boost domestic production, jolting financial markets. *The announcement sent copper prices soaring over 10% to $5.67/lb, an all-time high, as traders reacted to potential supply disruptions and increased costs. Market Summary: In a televised cabinet session yesterday, President Trump jolted markets once againContinue Reading
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