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EN
14 August 2025,07:22
Daily Market Analysis
14 August 2025, 07:22
Key Takeaways:
*Australia’s July Employment Change: +24.5K vs. +25K expected (June revised from +2K to +1K).
*Unemployment Rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, matching expectations.
*RBA cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.60%; Governor Bullock emphasizes a meeting-by-meeting approach.
*US delays tariffs on China by 90 days, easing trade war concerns.
Market Summary:
The Australian dollar extended gains against the U.S. dollar, buoyed by upbeat domestic labor data and broad greenback weakness as traders priced in rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Australia’s Employment Change for July came in at +24.5K, slightly below expectations of +25K but sharply higher than June’s revised +1K. The unemployment rate eased to 4.2%, matching forecasts and signaling resilience in the labor market.
At its August policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, citing a cautious economic outlook. Governor Michele Bullock emphasized a meeting-by-meeting approach to future policy decisions, pointing to uncertainty over global trade conditions and domestic economic momentum.
On the trade front, sentiment improved after the U.S. and China extended their tariff truce by 90 days, delaying the planned tariff hike until November 10. The pause in escalation has offered short-term relief to markets, especially for Australia, given China’s role as a key trading partner. The tariff delay is seen as potentially supportive for Australia’s trade outlook and currency.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on upcoming Fed monetary policy decisions, with markets anticipating a 25 bps rate cut in September, as well as future RBA policy signals and developments in U.S.–China trade talks, which remain key drivers for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD is trading near the 0.6545 support level. MACD shows diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI has retreated from overbought territory to 60, signaling potential downside pressure.
A confirmed break below 0.6545 could pave the way toward the next support at 0.6520. Conversely, if bearish momentum fades, the pair could rebound toward 0.6575 resistance, with further upside potential toward 0.6620.
Resistance levels: 0.6575, 0.6620
Support levels: 0.6545, 0.6520
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