Cryptocurrencies Consolidate Ahead of Fed Decision

Key Takeaways:

*Bitcoin held near $115,000 while Ether slid 6% from last week’s peak, as traders awaited Wednesday’s FOMC decision.

*Crypto ETFs posted five consecutive sessions of net inflows, signaling renewed institutional demand.

*Bitcoin tracked gold’s breakout above $3,680, with a dovish Fed outcome seen as a catalyst for fresh crypto gains.

Market Summary:

Cryptocurrencies opened the week trading within a narrow range following a moderate weekend correction, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision. Bitcoin held near the $115,000 level, while Ethereum retreated more than 6% from last week’s peak near $4,800, reflecting a broader pause in momentum ahead of the key macro catalyst.

Underlying demand remains supportive, however. Crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a fifth consecutive session of net inflows, reversing a previous trend of outflows and signaling renewed institutional interest. The positive sentiment has been further bolstered by a record-setting rally in U.S. equities, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs, reinforcing risk appetite across speculative asset classes.

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold—often referred to as “digital gold” in portfolio contexts—may also provide tailwinds, after the precious metal broke to a historic high above $3,680 amid safe-haven demand and expectations of monetary easing.

Market participants are largely anticipating a dovish outcome from the Fed, which could serve as a catalyst for the next leg higher across the digital asset complex. Should the central bank signal forthcoming rate cuts or a less restrictive policy stance, cryptocurrencies are poised to extend their recent advance. Conversely, a hawkish surprise may trigger short-term volatility, though structural demand from ETFs and institutional adoption is likely to provide a floor under prices.

Technical Analysis

BTC, H4

Bitcoin is trading firmly above the $115,000 level after breaking out of its previous downtrend channel and advancing nearly 5%, though the bullish momentum has moderated in recent sessions. The cryptocurrency is now consolidating within a narrow range, indicating a pause as markets await fresh catalysts. A decisive break above this consolidation phase would signal a resumption of the upward trend and potentially open the path toward new all-time highs.

Momentum indicators reflect this period of cooling bullish energy. The Relative Strength Index has retreated from overbought territory to near its midline, suggesting a balance between buying and selling pressure. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has generated a bearish crossover—often referred to as a “death cross”—at elevated levels and is approaching its zero line. This indicates that near-term momentum is waning, aligning with the sideways price action.

Resistance levels: 117,200.00, 122,350.00
Support levels: 112,800.00, 109,500.00

ETH, H4

Ethereum has failed to sustain a breakout above its prolonged consolidation range, encountering strong selling pressure near the $4,800 resistance level—a zone that has repeatedly capped upward moves since the cryptocurrency reached its all-time high. The rejection signals a potential near-term reversal, with ETH likely to test lower support levels unless buying interest reemerges decisively.

The cryptocurrency is now poised to retreat toward its next key liquidity zone near $4,300, a level that has previously provided both support and buying interest. A break below this threshold would signal a deeper correction, potentially extending toward the $4,000 psychological level.

Momentum indicators have shifted notably bearishly. The Relative Strength Index has declined from overbought conditions and is trending toward the midline, reflecting waning bullish momentum. More significantly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has completed a bearish crossover—often referred to as a “death cross”—and has moved below its zero line, confirming that near-term momentum has turned negative.

Resistance levels: 4618.00, 5130.00
Support levels: 4015.00, 3530.00