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EN
11 September 2025,04:04
Daily Market Analysis
11 September 2025, 04:04
Key Takeaways:
*Oil rallied 1.7% on renewed geopolitical tensions (Poland drones, Israeli strikes in Qatar).
*Gains remain capped as U.S. inventories surged 3.9M barrels, signaling weak demand.
*Gasoline and distillate builds confirm economic slowdown effects on fuel usage.
Market Summary:
Crude oil prices staged a modest recovery this week, rallying more than 1.7% as geopolitical risk premiums returned to the forefront. The interception of Russian drones by Poland, viewed as a direct breach of NATO airspace, raised fears of broader regional escalation that could disrupt supply flows across Europe. These concerns, coupled with renewed instability in the Middle East following Israeli strikes in Qatar, have kept energy traders on alert and injected a layer of short-term risk support into the market.
However, underlying fundamentals remain overwhelmingly bearish. A U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report revealed a surprise 3.9 million barrel build in crude inventories, alongside sharp increases in gasoline and distillates. These figures signal a pronounced weakening in demand as the U.S. summer driving season winds down, aligning with broader indicators of a cooling economy. The physical market has also begun to reflect oversupply concerns, with prompt WTI spreads softening to multi-month lows.
Longer-term forecasts paint an even more sobering picture. The EIA projects Brent crude to average just $51 per barrel by 2026, with rising output from non-OPEC+ producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana expected to overwhelm global demand growth. As such, while sporadic geopolitical flare-ups may continue to inject short-lived risk premiums, the broader trajectory for oil remains capped by a fundamental supply-demand imbalance. Traders are increasingly skeptical of rallies absent tangible evidence of real supply disruption, leaving the path of least resistance tilted lower.
Technical Analysis
USOIL, H4:
USOIL has staged a tentative rebound from the $61.50 base, carving out a short-term ascending structure. Price is now retesting the $63.10–$64.90 zone, where previous breakdowns occurred, making it a pivotal resistance band. A breakout above this area would open the path toward $64.90, while failure here risks a slip back toward $63.15 and the key floor at $61.50.
Momentum signals are improving but remain cautious. RSI has lifted to 56, suggesting moderate bullish pressure but still shy of overbought levels. Meanwhile, the MACD has crossed into positive territory, with a gradually widening histogram that hints at strengthening momentum, though conviction is not yet decisive.
In sum, USOIL is in recovery mode but faces a critical test at the $63.70–$64.90 barrier. Sustained strength above this threshold could extend the rebound, while rejection would likely send the market back into consolidation near $63.10–$61.50.
Resistance level: 64.90, 66.65
Support level: 63.10, 61.50
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